October 29: An ASEAN crop study released through Singapore’s official press centre projects uneven climate effects on five major Southeast Asian crops in 2025–2044. Average rice production is projected to decline 3–5% and maize 5–6%, while some other crops show gains. The results are modelled changes against a historical baseline, rather than measured losses in this year’s harvest.
Key highlights
- The study compares 2025–2044 with the historical period 1995–2014.
- Rice, maize, cassava, sugarcane and soybean were assessed.
- Regional averages mask differences between places, seasons and individual years.
- The study is to be presented for adoption at the upcoming ASEAN agriculture-ministers’ meeting.
Who carried out the ASEAN crop study
The Singapore Food Agency and the National University of Singapore’s Tropical Marine Science Institute jointly undertook the ASEAN Agri Climate Impact Twenty study, known as AACIT. The October 29 factsheet says it combines information from Singapore’s Third National Climate Change Study with crop modelling.
The work examines changes in temperature and rainfall, heat stress, drought, heavy rain and climate variability such as El Niño. Its purpose is to identify vulnerable crops and areas and support adaptation planning.
The five-crop results
| Crop | Projected average regional production change, 2025–2044 |
|---|---|
| Rice | 3–5% decline |
| Maize | 5–6% decline |
| Cassava | 16% increase |
| Sugarcane | 1–4% decline |
| Soybean | 11–13% increase |
The comparison is with 1995–2014, as stated in the factsheet. These values should not be described as five annual growth rates or as a forecast for a particular farm. They summarise regional model results over the study period.
Why an average can conceal a difficult year
The factsheet illustrates substantial variation. Rice production is projected to be 4% higher in a favourable year but 15% lower in an unfavourable one. For maize, the comparable changes are a 2% decline and a 19% decline. Even a crop with a positive average can face an adverse year.
AACIT’s simulations also suggest that very strong El Niño events can reduce regional average crop production by up to about 10%. The factsheet says effects vary with crop, location, season and production system, with rainfed systems generally more sensitive.
The distinction matters for planning. An average describes the centre of a range, while a supply system must also cope with the difficult part of that range. A country or buyer dependent on one production area can face a different exposure from one sourcing across several areas.
What adaptation can address
The factsheet identifies possible applications including planting-calendar adjustments, more climate-resilient varieties, farming practices, improved irrigation efficiency and better monitoring and early-warning systems. It says local knowledge and national priorities should be considered alongside the regional findings.
The relevant choice will depend on the conditions of a particular location. A measure addressing water stress is not automatically the answer to flood exposure, and a crop’s regional gain does not establish that switching to it is suitable for every farmer.
The study is described as a source of early indications for food-security planning. It does not publish a forecast for supermarket prices or a precise estimate of future national food supply.
What to watch
The next policy milestone is presentation for adoption at the upcoming 48th ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry meeting. Country-level assessments and adaptation plans will be needed to translate regional findings into practical decisions.
For readers, the most important check is to keep the baseline, period and uncertainty attached to each percentage. Removing those details turns a useful risk assessment into a misleading claim about today’s food production.
Sources
- Singapore Food Agency: AACIT media factsheet, October 29, 2026
- Singapore Food Agency: Original three-page AACIT factsheet (PDF)
The International Desk covers world and Asian affairs, diplomacy and conflict, with a focus on what they mean for India. Stories are checked against at least two credible sources before publication.
