NEW DELHI, November 6: Inflation in the Philippines rose to 7.8% in October from 7.2% in September, driven mainly by higher domestic fuel prices and transport fares, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Thursday. The figure was within the central bank’s forecast range of 7.1% to 8.1%, and the BSP said inflation is likely to stay elevated in the coming months.
Key highlights
- Headline inflation: 7.8% year on year in October, up from 7.2% in September.
- Core inflation, which leaves out volatile food and energy, rose to 5.4% from 4.8%.
- Poorest households: inflation for the bottom 30% of households by income rose to 9.5% from 9.0%.
- Year to date: average inflation for January–October was 5.6%, well above the government’s 3.0% target and its tolerance band of 2–4%.
- Drivers: domestic fuel prices and transport fares; the BSP is also watching the Middle East and El Niño conditions.
| Measure | October 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation | 7.8% | 7.2% |
| Core inflation | 5.4% | 4.8% |
| Bottom 30% of households | 9.5% | 9.0% |
| Average, January–October | 5.6% | — |
| BSP forecast range for October | 7.1%–8.1% | — |
What the central bank said
The BSP said the October outturn was consistent with its projection that inflation would remain high in the coming months. It said it would stay vigilant and guided by incoming data, and would continue to assess the impact of developments in the Middle East and the ongoing El Niño weather pattern on the outlook for inflation and growth.
Our calculation
- Headline inflation rose 0.6 percentage points in a month, and core inflation also rose 0.6 points.
- Inflation for the poorest 30% of households (9.5%) is 1.7 points higher than the overall rate, likely because food and transport take a bigger share of their spending.
- At 5.6%, average inflation so far this year is 2.6 points above the 3.0% target midpoint.
What it means
The Philippines imports almost all of its oil, so higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict pass quickly into transport fares and the cost of goods. El Niño, which usually brings drier conditions to the country, adds a risk to farm output and food prices. With both headline and core inflation rising, pressure is building on the central bank to keep policy tight. For India, the Philippine numbers are another sign of how the oil shock is spreading across import-dependent Asian economies.
What to watch
- The BSP’s next monetary policy decision.
- Domestic pump prices and any change in transport fares.
- El Niño’s effect on rice and vegetable prices in the coming months.
A jeepney in Manila. Transport fares were one of the main drivers of October inflation. Image: Vyacheslav Argenberg, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Photo source · Licence
Sources
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