November 11: China’s cumulative trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026 as a global surge in artificial intelligence infrastructure spending powered a 35.2% year-on-year jump in October exports, according to official data released by China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) on Tuesday.
Key highlights
- China’s January–October 2026 trade surplus hit $1.04 trillion, crossing the $1-trillion mark a month earlier than in 2025, the General Administration of Customs reported.
- October exports rose 35.2% year-on-year to $412.3 billion, beating the 33.5% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
- Imports climbed 41.6% year-on-year in October to $307.1 billion, ahead of the 32% Reuters poll estimate and up from 31% growth in September.
- Semiconductor exports surged 111.1% year-on-year by value during the first 10 months of 2026, while overall high-tech shipments grew 47.9%, Reuters reported.
- China’s trade surplus with the European Union exceeded $310 billion in January–October 2026, while its October surplus with the United States narrowed to $32.71 billion.
AI hardware and chip shipments offset weak domestic demand
Exports from the world’s second-largest economy rose 35.2% year-on-year to $412.3 billion in October, only slightly below September’s 36.3% gain, The Hindu and The Standard reported citing General Administration of Customs figures. Imports expanded faster than expected at 41.6% year-on-year to $307.1 billion, bringing the single-month October trade surplus to $105.2 billion, compared with $133.5 billion in September.
Our calculation: Based on the General Administration of Customs figures of $412.3 billion in October exports and $307.1 billion in imports, China’s October monthly merchandise surplus stood at $105.2 billion, accounting for roughly 10.1% of the 10-month cumulative surplus of $1.04 trillion.
Shipments of computing equipment, networking hardware and semiconductors bound for global AI data centres have buffered Chinese factories against a prolonged domestic property downturn and subdued household spending, Reuters reported. In the first 10 months of 2026, semiconductor export values rose 111.1% year-on-year and overall high-tech exports increased 47.9%. Over the same period, Chinese domestic vehicle sales declined for a 12th consecutive month even as overseas auto shipments continued to grow, according to industry association data cited by Reuters.
China October 2026 trade data at a glance
| Metric | October 2026 / Jan–Oct 2026 | Comparison / Forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan–Oct cumulative trade surplus | $1.04 trillion | Crossed $1T in Nov 2025 ($1.19T full year) | General Administration of Customs |
| October exports (YoY) | +35.2% ($412.3 billion) | Beat 33.5% Reuters poll (+36.3% in Sep) | GAC / Reuters |
| October imports (YoY) | +41.6% ($307.1 billion) | Beat 32.0% Reuters poll (+31.0% in Sep) | GAC / Reuters |
| Jan–Oct semiconductor exports (YoY) | +111.1% | High-tech exports overall +47.9% | Reuters / Customs data |
| October surplus with the US | $32.71 billion | Down from $34.01 billion in September | Reuters |
Commodity inflows and growing friction with Western partners
October customs data also showed crude oil imports climbing to their highest monthly volume since March as Chinese refiners adjusted to supply disruptions in the Middle East, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, rare-earth export volumes edged higher in October, which Capital Economics China economist Nguyen Hoang Nam said suggested Beijing may have begun relaxing enforcement of certain export controls following US pressure.
However, the expanding surplus is intensifying trade friction with Europe and North America. China’s trade surplus with the European Union surpassed $310 billion in the first 10 months of 2026, up from $241.6 billion a year earlier. Following October talks in Beijing between EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, the two sides agreed to limit Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to the bloc over the coming years—a step analysts say could prompt Chinese automakers to front-load shipments before the caps take effect.
What to watch
Trade imbalances and tariff policy will take centre stage on November 18–19 when Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are scheduled to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in Shenzhen—their third meeting of 2026. On Monday, Beijing and Washington formally extended their bilateral tariff truce by two months into January 2027, though China’s Commerce Ministry has maintained that increased purchases of US farm goods depend on reciprocal tariff reductions.
Sources
- The Hindu: China says 2026 trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion in October
- The Standard: China’s trade surplus soars past US$1 trillion, October exports jump 35.2% y/y
- The Business Standard: China’s trade surplus soars past $1 trillion as AI boom powers exports
The International Desk covers world and Asian affairs, diplomacy and conflict, with a focus on what they mean for India. Stories are checked against at least two credible sources before publication.
