November 15: Hong Kong has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.8%, above the 3.5–4.5% range it gave in August, after revised figures confirmed that the economy grew 5.2% year on year in the third quarter, the government announced on Friday. Exports of goods jumped 30.3%, and the government cut its inflation forecasts, to 2.0% for headline prices and 1.9% for underlying prices.
Key highlights
- Q3 growth: 5.2% year on year, up from 4.2% in Q2; 1.9% quarter on quarter after a 0.7% fall in Q2.
- January–September: 5.1%, the fastest pace for that period in five years.
- Exports: goods up 30.3%, services up 4.3%.
- Investment: overall up 7.5%; private investment up 11.6%, a fourth straight double-digit gain.
- New forecasts: GDP growth 4.8% (was 3.5–4.5%); headline inflation 2.0% (was 2.6%); underlying inflation 1.9% (was 2.5%).
- Jobs: unemployment edged up to 3.9%.
Where the growth came from
| Component (real, year on year) | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Exports of goods | 28.9% | 30.3% |
| Exports of services | 3.2% | 4.3% |
| Private consumption | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Government consumption | Virtually unchanged | 1.7% |
| Overall investment | 3.7% | 7.5% |
The new forecasts
| 2026 forecast | August | November |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 3.5% to 4.5% | 4.8% |
| Headline consumer inflation | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Underlying consumer inflation | 2.5% | 1.9% |
Government Economist Irina Fan presented the figures. The government said exports to the mainland and many other Asian markets continued to grow strongly. In asset markets, the Hang Seng Index ended the third quarter at 24,613, up 7.6% from the end of June, and residential flat prices were broadly stable in the quarter, with a 7% gain so far this year.
The risks the government flagged
- Prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could push up global inflation and affect central-bank decisions.
- A possible return of trade tensions.
- Rising government bond yields in major advanced economies with high public debt.
- A possible market correction if expectations about artificial intelligence prove too optimistic.
Our calculation
| Question | Answer | How we got it |
|---|---|---|
| Rise in the growth forecast from the top of the old range | 0.3 percentage points | 4.8% − 4.5% |
| Goods exports growth compared with consumer spending growth | About 10 times faster | 30.3% vs 2.9% |
| Rough Q4 growth implied by the full-year forecast | Around 4% | 4 × 4.8% − 3 × 5.1%, assuming equal quarterly weights |
What it means for India and Asia
Hong Kong’s numbers show how strongly Asian trade has held up this year: goods exports are growing at around 30% even as households spend cautiously. As a re-export hub for the mainland and the wider region, Hong Kong is an early signal of demand for Asian-made goods. The lower inflation forecast eases pressure on household budgets, although the government said the pass-through of oil prices to fuel costs is likely to continue into 2027.
What to watch
- Fourth-quarter advance GDP estimates early next year.
- Whether US–China trade tensions return after the APEC meeting in Shenzhen on November 18–19.
- Movements in the Hang Seng Index and property prices.
Skyscrapers along Victoria Harbour in Hong Kong (file photo). Image: Wilfredor, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons. Photo source · Licence
Sources
- Hong Kong SAR Government: Economic performance in third quarter of 2026 and latest GDP and price forecasts for 2026
- Hong Kong SAR Government: Advance estimates on GDP for third quarter of 2026
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