WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said this week he is “hopefully” close to ending the six-and-a-half-month war with Iran, claiming Tehran has reached out directly to negotiate a deal. Senior Iranian officials publicly rejected that characterisation on Thursday, even as a United Nations fact-finding mission said it had found “reasonable grounds” to believe that US strikes in February may have violated the laws of war.
Key Highlights
- Trump told a rally in North Carolina this week: “Hopefully we’re toward the end of the war. They want to make a deal.”
- He has separately said the war will end “right after the midterms” in November, adding that “gasoline’s going to drop like a rock.”
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, dismissed the comments as “mixed signals” and said Tehran will not talk “until Iran’s conditions are met.”
- A UN human rights panel said it found “reasonable grounds” to believe February 28 US strikes on a school in Minab and a sports complex in Lamerd, reportedly killing 178 civilians combined, amounted to war crimes.
- Brent crude eased to about $103 a barrel on Thursday from $108 earlier in the week, after US officials said a damaged Saudi pipeline would reopen “relatively soon.”
- The US House voted 220-204 this week, for the third time, to restrict Trump’s authority to continue military action against Iran without congressional approval.
Latest Development
Trump repeated a claim he has made multiple times since the war began: that Iran is eager to end the fighting. “Iran wants to make a deal so bad. They are calling constantly,” he said, adding that any agreement would have to meet his terms. Asked when the war might conclude, he said: “It’ll end right after the midterms. Gasoline’s going to drop like a rock” — tying the conflict’s end to the outcome of November’s midterm elections.
Tehran’s response, delivered Thursday, undercut the optimism. Rezaei accused Washington of sending “mixed signals” and said Iran would not enter talks “until Iran’s conditions are met.” Former Iranian diplomat Abbas Khameyar was more blunt, telling reporters “nobody believes this,” and noting that actual diplomatic contact has not expanded beyond existing channels. Formal negotiations brokered by Pakistan reportedly collapsed last month after a memorandum of understanding fell apart, and current mediation efforts — led by Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir and backed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s calls for restraint — have not produced a public breakthrough. US officials have also been meeting Houthi representatives in Muscat, Oman, over separate Red Sea tensions.
UN Panel Cites Possible War Crimes
Separately on Thursday, the UN fact-finding mission reported it had found “reasonable grounds to believe” that two US strikes on February 28 — the day the war began — may have violated the laws of war. The panel said one strike hit a school in Minab that reportedly killed 168 people, most of them children, while a second struck a sports complex in Lamerd, dispersing tungsten pellets over the area. The Press of Asia has not independently verified these casualty figures and is reporting the panel’s findings as allegations under UN review, not established fact. There was no immediate US government response to the report.
Background
The war began on February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces struck Iranian targets. Iran did not begin targeting commercial and military shipping until after the bombing campaign started; the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes, had operated normally before the conflict. Fighting has since widened to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, where Iran-aligned Houthi forces have repeatedly struck Saudi cities and, this week, triggered a security alert near Mecca for the first time since 2017. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, an alternate export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, has also been shut for more than a week after drone strikes, pushing Brent crude to four-month highs before Thursday’s slight easing.
The Pentagon has estimated the war’s cost at $33.4 billion through mid-June, with munitions accounting for $22.3 billion of that total; the Congressional Budget Office projects ongoing costs of roughly $2 billion a month. In Washington, the conflict has become a recurring flashpoint in Congress, which voted 220-204 this week — the third such vote — to limit Trump’s authority to continue military action without congressional approval, with several Republicans breaking from their party.
Why It Matters
Trump’s repeated predictions that the war is close to ending have not been matched by visible progress at the negotiating table, and Thursday’s exchange illustrates the gap between the two sides’ public messaging. For a conflict that has run nearly seven months, drawn in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and disrupted a critical oil corridor, that gap matters: financial markets, regional governments and ordinary consumers are all pricing in the possibility that fighting continues well past any political deadline Trump has floated. The UN panel’s findings add a legal and diplomatic dimension that could complicate any eventual settlement, particularly if allegations of civilian harm become a sticking point in future talks.
India and Asia Impact
For India and other major Asian oil importers, the war’s trajectory is directly tied to energy costs. Brent crude’s swing between $103 and $108 a barrel this week shows how sensitive prices remain to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia’s pipeline network. India, which imports most of its crude, is already weighing the conflict’s impact on fuel and market pricing this week alongside a separate US sanctions bill targeting India’s purchases of Russian oil. A prolonged war, or a sudden escalation around Hormuz, would raise import costs further; a genuine de-escalation, if it materialises, would ease that pressure.
What Happens Next
With Congress pushing to limit Trump’s war powers, Tehran publicly rejecting his deal claims, and a UN panel’s war crimes findings now in the open, the coming days are likely to bring further statements from Washington and Tehran rather than a swift resolution. Analysts will be watching whether Pakistan’s mediation effort revives, whether China’s calls for a Hormuz reopening gain traction, and whether the Saudi pipeline’s return to service brings oil prices down further. The Press of Asia will continue to track developments in this story.