Update: The Federal Reserve went on to raise rates by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and gold and silver fell sharply in India the next day. See our report: Gold and silver fall sharply after US Fed rate hike.
New Delhi, September 7: Gold stayed under pressure on Monday as strong US jobs data raised bets on an interest-rate hike. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,421.04 an ounce at 08:35 GMT (2:05 p.m. IST), and December US gold futures were 0.2% lower at $4,466.90. The MCX GOLD 5-Oct-2026 contract was at ₹1,52,631 per 10 grams at 2:49 p.m. IST, down 0.09%.
These are different markets at different times. Spot gold, COMEX and MCX futures, and jewellers’ retail rates are not the same: contract month, the rupee-dollar rate, import duty, GST and local premiums all create gaps. Treating any one figure as the day’s universal gold rate would be misleading.
Key highlights
- Spot gold: $4,421.04 an ounce at 08:35 GMT, down 0.2%.
- US December gold futures: $4,466.90 an ounce, down 0.2%.
- MCX GOLD 5-Oct-2026: ₹1,52,631 per 10 grams at 2:49 p.m. IST, down 0.09%.
- Indicative 24-carat retail and bullion quotes: about ₹1.53 lakh to ₹1.55 lakh per 10 grams, varying by city, provider, time, purity and premium.
- Markets priced a 58.4% chance of a Fed rate hike at the time.
How the Fed is weighing on gold
US nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, against a poll of economists estimate of 56,000. The stronger-than-expected labour market led traders to raise the odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting. Higher interest rates are usually a headwind for gold, because bullion pays no interest and rising bond yields make cash and fixed-income assets relatively more attractive.
On Friday the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.78% and the two-year yield to about 4.38%. Shorter-dated yields are more sensitive to Fed expectations. Strong US inflation data would strengthen the case for a hike; softer inflation could give gold some relief.
The role of the dollar and the rupee
Gold is priced in dollars globally. A stronger dollar makes the metal dearer for buyers using other currencies and weighs on international demand. In India the rupee is the other side of the story: if the rupee weakens, domestic prices fall less even when global gold drops. On Monday the rupee opened at 94.40 to the dollar in the interbank market and touched 94.39 in early trade. Our report on India’s record forex reserves explains that the RBI has more room to manage volatility, though it does not guarantee any fixed exchange rate.
Why MCX and spot prices differ
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold (, 08:35 GMT) | $4,421.04 per ounce | International spot price |
| Spot converted to rupees (our calculation) | ≈ ₹1,34,180 per 10 g | At ₹94.40 per dollar; 1 ounce = 31.1035 g; before duty and taxes |
| MCX GOLD 5-Oct-2026 (2:49 p.m. IST) | ₹1,52,631 per 10 g | Futures contract, includes import costs |
| Gap between the two | ≈ 13.8% | Import duty, contract premium and local factors |
Our calculation: $4,421.04 × ₹94.40 ÷ 31.1035 grams × 10 gives roughly ₹1,34,180 per 10 grams. The MCX October contract was about 13.8% higher, which shows how much import duty, the futures contract’s forward premium and other local costs add before a single gram reaches a jeweller. Retail buyers then pay GST and making charges on top.
Does costlier oil help or hurt gold?
Brent crude was near $96–97 a barrel on Monday morning. Supply risk in the Middle East can push up inflation, which supports gold as a long-term hedge. But the same inflation can give the Fed a reason to keep rates high or raise them, and higher yields weigh on gold. That tension is why bullion is not moving clearly in one direction. For the wider picture, see our analysis of the US–Iran conflict and Brent crude and today’s share market update.
What buyers should check
The MCX price is a quote for a standard futures contract. A jeweller’s 24-carat or 22-carat rate includes the purity of the physical metal, local supply, duty, tax and premium, and jewellery buyers pay making charges and GST on top. So a 10-gram screen quote is not the final bill. Buyers should check whether the quoted purity is 24K/999 or 22K/916, whether GST is included, and whether the making charge is fixed or a percentage. Hallmark and HUID verification also matter.
What to watch
- US consumer and producer inflation data: a strong print could test support around $4,400; weak data could soften yields and the dollar and give gold room to rebound.
- The Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, where supply disruption lifts inflation expectations and fear can bring safe-haven buying.
- The dollar index, US yields, the rupee and the MCX contract.
What it means
On Monday morning, global gold was under pressure, the odds of a Fed hike had risen, and the oil shock had created a tug of war between inflation and safe-haven demand. Indian prices will follow the global move along with the rupee, duty and local premiums. An intraday quote should not be taken as the final rate or as a guide to direction. This report is general market information, not investment advice.
This article was first published in Hindi and has been translated. The Press of Asia now publishes in English only.
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Employment Situation, August 2026
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar
- MCX India: Market watch
The Business Desk covers markets, the economy, companies and personal finance. Stories are checked against at least two credible sources before publication.
